A risk register for energy security: a UK case study

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonEnergy policy in many countries, driven by concerns about resource scarcity and environmental damage, is promoting a shift from fossil fuels to a variety of renewable sources. This has consequences both for sustainability and energy security, concepts which share common features, some of which are poorly defined or lacking good data. Using the Process Analysis Method for systematically selecting (sustainability) indicators, we recognised the need to account for risks arising from resource discovery and processing, conversion, and the use of the final energy vector. We analyse the whole of the fuel supply chain in a six stage process for 25 renewable and non-renewable fuels, both current and potential sources. We find that causes of risks can be categorised into seven groups, namely: economic, environmental, innovation, manufacturing, political, skills, and technical. Furthermore, we identify 34 specific causes of risk which we assess to compare their relative importance for the different fuels. In both structuring the problem, and quantifying individual risks we use published information and consultation with experts to ensure that the analysis has a broad range of inputs. All of these impinge on a national or supra-national assessment of energy security, which are important for the formulation of energy policy. Using the UK as a case study, we have applied our method to both reference and low carbon future energy system scenarios to calculate the levels of risk as the system composition changes. Our method underlines the need for assessments and data relating to many issues which are commonly not considered as part of energy security

Resource Rents, Democracy & the Eight Policy Lessons

We examine if resource revenues are likely to be managed more effectively with strong (or lack of) institutions and if so to contribute to economic development in resource abundant countries. We estimate a general model using evidence for the resource booms of the 1970-2012 period, resource rents, natural capital, socio-economic indicators and for institutions. Our results show 1) Countries with ample natural capital and subsoil wealth levels are associated to a healthier democracy which potentially mitigates the resource curse (RC); 2) High resource rents are negatively associated to weak institutional quality deepening the curse; 3) Long run economic growth is positively associated to natural capital but negatively associated for those countries that receive high resource rents. We recommend stronger transparency for revenue allocation, for sales of oil production, for the allocation of licences, and for revenue collection. One limitation is the lack of information: (energy) laws inducing economic growth. This paper contributes to explaining the long run impact of democratic change on managing resource revenue. Our three key conclusions are:1) Resource abundance across the world produces a strong income effect; 2) Institution quality emerges as the key mechanism from which the RC effect emanates; and 3)The RC effect does not appear in all countries at all times as some researchers argue.  Examinamos si las rentas de recursos naturales son probablemente mejor administradas bajo instituciones fuertes (o falta de estas), y de serlo así si eso contribuye al desarrollo económico de países con abundantes recursos naturales. Estimamos un modelo usando evidencia de booms (1970-2012) de recursos, rentas de recursos, capital natural, indicadores socio-económicos y de instituciones. Nuestros resultados son tres que 1) países con capital natural y riqueza del subsuelo están asociados a una sana democracia lo que mitiga la maldición de los recursos naturales (MRN); 2) altos niveles de renta están negativamente asociados a la baja calidad de instituciones lo que profundiza la maldición; 3) el crecimiento económico a largo plazo está asociado a el capital natural pero tal crecimiento esta negativamente asociado en países que registran altos percepciones de rentas. Recomendamos transparencia en: la distribución de rentas, las ventas de petróleo, distribución de licencias y la recaudación de rentas. Una limitación es la falta de información: leyes (sector energético) que produzcan el crecimiento. Explicamos el impacto de largo plazo de el cambio democrático sobre la gestión de la rentas. Nuestras tres conclusiones claves son: 1) La abundancia de recursos naturales en todo el mundo produce un fuerte efecto sobre los ingresos; 2) La calidad institucional emerge como un mecanismo clave del que emana el efecto MRN; y 3) El efecto MRN no aparece en todos los países en todo momento como argumentan algunos investigadores

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: literature review

Smart grids are expected to play a central role in any transition to a low-carbon energy future, and much research is currently underway on practically every area of smart grids. However, it is evident that even basic aspects such as theoretical and operational definitions, are yet to be agreed upon and be clearly defined. Some aspects (efficient management of supply, including intermittent supply, two-way communication between the producer and user of electricity, use of IT technology to respond to and manage demand, and ensuring safe and secure electricity distribution) are more commonly accepted than others (such as smart meters) in defining what comprises a smart grid. It is clear that smart grid developments enjoy political and financial support both at UK and EU levels, and from the majority of related industries. The reasons for this vary and include the hope that smart grids will facilitate the achievement of carbon reduction targets, create new employment opportunities, and reduce costs relevant to energy generation (fewer power stations) and distribution (fewer losses and better stability). However, smart grid development depends on additional factors, beyond the energy industry. These relate to issues of public acceptability of relevant technologies and associated risks (e.g. data safety, privacy, cyber security), pricing, competition, and regulation; implying the involvement of a wide range of players such as the industry, regulators and consumers. The above constitute a complex set of variables and actors, and interactions between them. In order to best explore ways of possible deployment of smart grids, the use of scenarios is most adequate, as they can incorporate several parameters and variables into a coherent storyline. Scenarios have been previously used in the context of smart grids, but have traditionally focused on factors such as economic growth or policy evolution. Important additional socio-technical aspects of smart grids emerge from the literature review in this report and therefore need to be incorporated in our scenarios. These can be grouped into four (interlinked) main categories: supply side aspects, demand side aspects, policy and regulation, and technical aspects.

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: synthesis report

‘Smart grid’ is a catch-all term for the smart options that could transform the ways society produces, delivers and consumes energy, and potentially the way we conceive of these services. Delivering energy more intelligently will be fundamental to decarbonising the UK electricity system at least possible cost, while maintaining security and reliability of supply. Smarter energy delivery is expected to allow the integration of more low carbon technologies and to be much more cost effective than traditional methods, as well as contributing to economic growth by opening up new business and innovation opportunities. Innovating new options for energy system management could lead to cost savings of up to £10bn, even if low carbon technologies do not emerge. This saving will be much higher if UK renewable energy targets are achieved. Building on extensive expert feedback and input, this report describes four smart grid scenarios which consider how the UK’s electricity system might develop to 2050. The scenarios outline how political decisions, as well as those made in regulation, finance, technology, consumer and social behaviour, market design or response, might affect the decisions of other actors and limit or allow the availability of future options. The project aims to explore the degree of uncertainty around the current direction of the electricity system and the complex interactions of a whole host of factors that may lead to any one of a wide range of outcomes. Our addition to this discussion will help decision makers to understand the implications of possible actions and better plan for the future, whilst recognising that it may take any one of a number of forms

FAR out? An examination of converging, diverging and intersecting smart grid futures in the United Kingdom

We describe a novel application of the field anomaly relaxation (FAR) method of scenario construction to the complex problem of smart grid development. We augment the FAR methodology with extensive expert input through all four steps to incorporate detailed knowledge of the technical, economic and policy issues relevant to informing scenarios for smart grid development in the United Kingdom. These steps inform scenarios useful to policymakers, regulators and the energy industry. We found this extended method to be flexible and reliable. Analysis of smart grid development yielded seven dimensions, allowing for portrayal of a complex and informed set of scenarios. The expert input and feedback identified branching points allowing switching between scenarios – a powerful dynamic feature to assist policy development for a fast-changing technological and regulatory landscape

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK : literature review

No abstractUK Energy Research Centr

Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK: synthesis report

No abstractUK Energy Research Centr

UK Smart Grid development: an expert assessment of the benefits, pitfalls and functions

Open Access articleMaking electricity grids smarter is a challenging, long-term, and ambitious process. It consists of many possible transitions and involves many actors relevant to existing and potential functions of the grid. We applied a two round Policy Delphi process with a range of sectoral experts who discussed important drivers, barriers, benefits, risks and expected functions of smarter grids, to inform the development of smarter grids. Our analysis of these expert views indicates broad consensus of the necessity for smarter grids, particularly for economic and environmental reasons; yet stakeholders also associated a range of risks and barriers such as lack of investment, disengaged consumers, complexity and data privacy with measures to make the grid smarter. Different methods for implementing smarter grid functions were considered, all thought to be more likely in urban settings. Implications for policy and future research are considered.Natural Environment Research Counci

Scenarios for the Development of Smart Grids in the UK: synthesis report

‘Smart grid’ is a catch-all term for the smart options that could transform the ways society produces, delivers and consumes energy, and potentially the way we conceive of these services. Delivering energy more intelligently will be fundamental to decarbonising the UK electricity system at least possible cost, while maintaining security and reliability of supply. Smarter energy delivery is expected to allow the integration of more low carbon technologies and to be much more cost effective than traditional methods, as well as contributing to economic growth by opening up new business and innovation opportunities. Innovating new options for energy system management could lead to cost savings of up to £10bn, even if low carbon technologies do not emerge1. This saving will be much higher if UK renewable energy targets are achieved. Building on extensive expert feedback and input, this report describes four smart grid scenarios which consider how the UK’s electricity system might develop to 2050. The scenarios outline how political decisions, as well as those made in regulation, finance, technology, consumer and social behaviour, market design or response, might affect the decisions of other actors and limit or allow the availability of future options. The project aims to explore the degree of uncertainty around the current direction of the electricity system and the complex interactions of a whole host of factors that may lead to any one of a wide range of outcomes. Our addition to this discussion will help decision makers to understand the implications of possible actions and better plan for the future, whilst recognising that it may take any one of a number of forms

Policy and Regulation for smart grids in the United Kingdom

The UK has adopted legal obligations concerning climate change which will place increased stresses on the current 'traditional' model of centralised generation. This will include the stimulation of large volumes of intermittent generation, more distributed generation and larger and more variable loads at grid extremities, potentially including large volumes of electric vehicles and heat pumps. Smarter grids have been mooted as a major potential contributor to the decarbonisation of electricity, through facilitation of reduced losses, greater system efficiency, enhanced flexibility to allow the system to deal with intermittent sources and a number of other benefits. This article considers the different policy elements of what will be required for energy delivery in the UK to become smarter, the challenges this presents, the extent to which these are currently under consideration and some of the changes that might be needed in the future. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd